美國北方天空研究公司(Northern Sky Research，以下稱NSR)的《平板衛星天線報告（第二版）》近日發表，并預測到2026年，平板天線設備的累計銷售額將達到91億美元。

作為在這一新興技術領域中唯一的多用戶報告（multi-client report），其文中指出對于制造商來說，航空設備將驅動收入的增長，同時非同步軌道衛星的固定寬帶業務將占據主體市場份額。

平板天線，或者確切來說，相控陣天線從上世紀80年代起就開始部署使用，但主要受成本和性能因素影響一直不溫不火。NSR分析師，該報告的合著者之一Prateep Basu表示：“沒有哪一種特定的平板天線技術能滿足所有需求，因為每個市場不光有各自特定的性能需求，還有不少管理負擔與經濟限制。”

雖然在移動市場中愈發收到歡迎，針對移動應用的平板天線預計將仍維持高價，這主要歸因于其技術的復雜性。NSR同時預測到2026年，得益于機上連接、海上休閑以及已有的政府部門陸地移動業務需求的快速增長，移動業務部分的收入在平板天線設備總收入中的占比，將超過92%。

衛星寬帶應用受OneWeb和SpaceX等公司的低軌高通量衛星星座運營情況帶動，是固定衛星業務發展預測的主要影響因素。至預測時間段截止前，200萬顆更低價格的平板天線將被部署以向中東和亞洲等地區提供服務。

“當今市場很明顯被商業航空連接業務主導。但是，新的平板天線制造商在衛星產業價值鏈中所采用的合作模式，將有助于提升特定市場的垂直發展速度。這也將塑造一種面向明確需求的商業模式。”NSR分析師及報告的另一位合著者Dallas Kasaboski補充道。

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IT’S A MOBILE WORLD FOR FLAT PANEL ANTENNAS

NSR’s Flat Panel Satellite Antennas, 2nd Edition(FPA2)report, released today, forecasts cumulative FPA equipment sales to reach $9.1 billion by 2026.

As the only multi-client report on this emerging technology, NSR’s FPA2 finds that aeronautical equipment will drive revenue growth for manufacturers, while fixed broadband services from non-GEO satellites will be the main volume market.

Flat Panel Antennas (FPAs), and more specifically, phased array antennas, have been deployed since the 1980s. Their cost and performance have been the major factors holding back the potentially ‘game-changing’ technologies.? “There is no one specific FPA technology that fits every need, as each market has its own specific performance requirements that come with the weight of regulatory and economic constraints,” stated Prateep Basu, NSR Analyst and report co-author.

Technical complexity of FPAs for mobile applications is expected to keep antenna prices high, even as they become more viable in mobile markets. Combined with the rapidly rising number of airlines pursuing in-flight connectivity, large leisure maritime markets, and the established land-mobile government sector, NSR expects mobile applications to drive FPA revenues, accounting for over 92% of total FPA equipment revenues, by 2026.

Satellite broadband applications, driven by the expected operationalization of LEO-HTS constellations like OneWeb and SpaceX, are the main drivers of the Fixed Applications forecast, delivering services over 2,000,000 lower-priced FPAs by the end of the forecast, primarily to the Middle East and Asia.

“The market today is clearly dominated by commercial aviation connectivity markets.? However, partnership models that new FPA manufacturers are adopting across the satellite industry value-chain can be expected to accelerate vertical market-specific development.? This will also shape business models that cater to a definite demand for such equipment,” added?Dallas Kasaboski, NSR Analyst and report co-author.